In this episode, we are seeing a real challenge facing the market: how a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s policies might impact consumption trends in the U.S. With so many variables in play, it’s clear that the price of oil, while low on a relative basis, isn’t necessarily signaling a bullish trend just yet. Until we see some major catalysts shift—such as changes in demand or more favorable economic conditions—oil prices may continue to hover around current levels.

We also take a closer look at the technical side, particularly the 200-week moving average, currently sitting at around $79.22. The fact that oil has stayed below this level for almost two months is raising some concerns. The only factor that seems to be pushing prices higher right now is geopolitical risk, which isn’t a solid foundation for sustained upward movement. As we unpack these dynamics, it’s clear there’s reason to keep a close eye on the market’s next moves.

Charts from todays show.

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