Asia’s thermal coal market may not be roaring, but it’s definitely rumbling. After months of sluggish demand and price drops, fresh data shows a modest rebound in imports, and the usual heavyweights, China and India, are once again leading the charge.
In May 2025, Asia’s seaborne thermal coal imports hit 74.12 million metric tons, the highest level in five months. It’s still below May 2024 numbers, but given where the market has been, any upward movement is newsworthy.
Low Prices and Seasonal Demand
Prices have plunged. Thermal coal prices from top exporters Indonesia and Australia have hit four-year lows.
Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg coal: $46.20/ton, while Australian 5,500 kcal/kg coal: $66.84/ton.
These levels haven’t been seen since 2021. And when coal gets cheap, power producers, especially in emerging economies, start buying.
But summer is coming. Both China and India tend to ramp up coal imports ahead of peak electricity demand in summer. More air conditioning means more power generation, and thermal coal still does the heavy lifting in many grids.
May imports of Australian coal to China jumped to 6.39 million tons, up from just 3.63 million in February.
But year-to-date (Jan–May) imports are still down 13.6% compared to 2024, thanks to stronger domestic production and renewable energy growth.
In India, May imports surged to 17.84 million tons, the highest since October 2023.
Notably, Indonesian coal made up 10.24 million tons of this, and Russian coal also saw a revival, hitting a two-year high.
Two big trends are keeping coal cheap: Record domestic production in both China and India. China alone produced 1.58 billion tons in the first four months of 2025.
A shift toward renewables and hydropower, especially in China, has reduced reliance on imported coal.
These factors have created a supply glut that’s dragged prices down, and now, ironically, the low prices are pulling buyers back in.
Short-term demand may tick up. Bargain prices and seasonal heatwaves could keep demand relatively strong through mid-year, especially if renewable outputs fluctuate.
But the long-term picture is still uncertain. While this is a bump, not a boom, it shows that coal still has a role, especially in countries where energy needs are growing faster than clean alternatives can scale.
Watch Russia. Russian coal is becoming increasingly competitive again, especially via Pacific ports. For India, that means more supplier options, and for Australia, more pricing pressure.
