Hold on to your harvest hats. Despite forecasts for a record U.S. corn crop, global corn supplies are headed for their lowest levels in 12 years.
That’s right. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest projections, 2025–26 global corn ending stocks are set to fall to 277.8 million metric tons.
That is a full 16% drop from 2023–24, which is also way below market expectations. So, what gives?
Let’s dig into what’s driving this unexpected shortage and why this matters far beyond the cornfields.
Global Corn Stocks are Getting Cropped Fast
Even with U.S. farmers expected to produce a record 15.82 billion bushels, the global supply picture is tightening.
The USDA now predicts a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.9%, the lowest since the 2012–13 season, a time remembered for sky-high prices and panic buying.
This supply crunch isn’t just about the U.S., though. South America is also set for record output, but even with U.S. gains, it’s insufficient to meet the world’s growing demand.
From Grain Hoarder to Supply Drainer
In a surprising twist, China is not helping to boost global stocks as it usually does. The country is projected to harvest a record corn crop, but the growth rate will be its slowest in five years.
USDA estimates show that if China is excluded, global corn stocks rise 7% year-over-year.
That means China is pulling more from global supplies than it’s putting back in, a reversal of its usual role as the world’s grain safety net.
Adding to the pressure, China’s corn imports are forecast to stay flat, even as the USDA is banking on a bump. If that increase doesn’t happen, global availability could tighten even more.
On the Surface, the U.S. Outlook Seems Strong
Record production forecast at 15.82 billion bushels, with a yield target of 181 bushels per acre, which is up from last year’s record of 179.3.
Meanwhile, the planting progress is already ahead of schedule at 62%.
But there’s a catch.
Ending stocks for 2025–26 are pegged at 1.8 billion bushels, right at the bottom of analysts’ expectations. Why? Because demand is booming, especially for exports, which USDA expects to take a larger-than-average share.
Some analysts are skeptical. Is this demand spike realistic, especially with Brazil ramping up its corn exports too? That’s still up for debate.
One Scare Could Shake the Market
These optimistic numbers assume everything goes perfectly, no droughts, no flooding, no major pests.
But as seasoned farmers and traders know, summer weather in the Midwest can make or break a harvest. If anything goes wrong, already-low global supplies could fall off a cliff, and corn prices could skyrocket.
