Oil is back in the spotlight, and this time, it’s not just about OPEC+. From drone strikes and nuclear standoffs to a slipping U.S. dollar, the global energy market is cooking up a fresh round of volatility.
Here’s what’s really fueling the recent price bump in crude.
Russia, Ukraine, and Iran
First up: war escalations in Ukraine. As May ended and June began, the conflict took a dramatic turn as one of the largest drone attacks of the war rocked Russia, damaging key infrastructure, including a highway bridge and reportedly targeting nuclear-capable bombers in Siberia. Talk about high-stakes tension.
And just as the world tries to digest that, Iran is back in the news. Tehran looks set to reject a new U.S. nuclear deal proposal, one that could’ve eased sanctions and brought more Iranian oil back onto the market. But with Iran saying the proposal “doesn’t serve their interests,” the oil flow from one of OPEC’s heavyweights might stay bottled up for now.
Less oil means prices go up.
A Slippery Dollar Helps Boost Crude
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is losing steam, dropping to a six-week low. Why? Uncertainty around President Trump’s renewed tariff threats is making traders nervous, with ripple effects hitting everything from trade to inflation.
For oil markets, this is big: A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. That typically increases global demand, adding yet another push to prices.
“Crude oil prices continue to rise, supported by the weakening dollar,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova. And she’s not wrong.
What’s OPEC+ and Canada Saying?
Now, about OPEC+: The group is sticking with a modest production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July. This is steady, but not enough to flood the market. It’s less than some had feared, and the market is reacting accordingly.
Plus, in Canada, wildfires in Alberta are disrupting more than 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, which is roughly 7% of the country’s crude output. These wildfires have become an annual threat to supply and are adding fuel to the current bullish sentiment.
Brent crude is up $0.43 (0.7%), trading at $65.06 a barrel, WTI crude is up $0.50 (0.8%), sitting at $63.02, the dollar index is near six-week lows, OPEC+ sticks with 411,000 bpd hike for July, and Canadian wildfires impact 344,000+ bpd.
Buckle Up
The oil market is in no mood for calm. Whether it’s geopolitical turmoil, environmental threats, or macroeconomic shifts, every factor right now is pulling prices upward.
For investors, traders, and energy watchers alike, this is a moment to stay sharp. If Iran backs away from diplomacy, if Canadian fires rage on, and if the dollar continues to slip, we could be in for a hot summer in the oil market.
