When news broke that Russia and China had greenlit the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the headlines practically wrote themselves.

Here was China, once again deepening ties with Moscow, seemingly ignoring Western warnings to scale back its partnership with Russia. At first glance, it might look like a big blow to U.S. energy exporters. But according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, that’s simply not the case.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on Friday, Wright made it clear: Russian gas sales to China won’t harm U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. In fact, he sounded almost upbeat about America’s role in the global energy game.

“I think in this administration, [LNG] will become the single largest export of our country, because exports will double during this administration,” Wright said. “This is a way to get European allies off Russian gas.”

The key point Wright emphasized is market share. While Russia is pivoting eastward and finding a customer in China, it has already lost a far bigger prize: Europe. Since the invasion of Ukraine, European nations have worked aggressively to cut themselves off from Russian energy, and U.S. LNG has stepped in to fill the gap.

So, while the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline may strengthen Russia-China ties symbolically, the numbers don’t tell a scary story for Washington. Russia is still losing more than it gains, at least for now.

President Donald Trump, in his second term, has been vocal about wanting to “end the killing in Ukraine.” Energy plays a huge role in that mission. Every dollar Russia earns from selling oil and gas helps sustain its war chest. That’s why the U.S. focus isn’t simply on boosting LNG exports, but also on cutting down Russia’s energy revenues.

Interestingly, Trump hasn’t slapped direct sanctions on Russian energy companies this time around. Instead, his administration has leaned on tariffs in other areas, such as a 25% tariff on Indian imports, punishing New Delhi for buying Russian oil. It’s a more indirect approach, but still part of the same pressure campaign.

The global energy chessboard is shifting fast. China is betting on Russian pipelines for the long term. Europe is doubling down on U.S. LNG to secure its energy independence. And the U.S. is positioning LNG not just as a commodity, but as a tool of foreign policy.

For American exporters, the takeaway is clear: demand for U.S. LNG is only going up, regardless of what deals Russia strikes with China. And for Russia, the eastward pivot may be a lifeline, but it’s not enough to fully offset the losses from Europe.