Oil prices saw a slight bump this Monday, May 26, 2025, thanks to President Donald Trump extending the deadline for trade talks with the European Union to July 9.

It’s not exactly fireworks in the oil market, but it was enough to calm investors’ nerves, at least for now. Brent crude nudged up to $64.96 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate followed suit at $61.70. This is not a breakout rally, but in a market where trade headlines can send prices tumbling, even a whisper of stability is good news.

The move signals a pause in tariff tensions that many feared could derail global trade and energy demand. According to IG market analyst Tony Sycamore, this deadline extension helped lift both crude and equity futures early Monday.

But with Trump’s unpredictability and ongoing fiscal jitters still in the mix, traders are keeping one eye on the oil charts and the other on the headlines.

Adding to the upward momentum were two key factors: a slowdown in U.S.-Iran nuclear deal negotiations and a holiday-induced buying spree ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

Plus, data from Baker Hughes revealed that the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. dropped by 8 last week, the lowest since November 2021. That’s a sign that producers are responding to softer prices and tightening up supply.

Still, the party could be short-lived. OPEC+ meets next week, and analysts expect the group might raise production by another 411,000 barrels per day for July. Combine that with what DBS Bank’s Suvro Sarkar calls a “mini oil price war,” and you’ve got the makings of a market oversupply.

As Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova warns, “If OPEC+ ramps up output while demand weakens, especially if Trump pushes forward with sweeping tariffs, oil prices could be in for a rocky ride.”

So yes, oil got a nudge today. But don’t let the calm fool you, volatility may just be getting warmed up.