Base metals took a bit of a hit today, but let’s keep things in perspective.
Copper is sitting at $9,535.50 per metric ton, down 0.2%, and aluminum slipped 1.3% to $2,695 per ton.
Not great, but zoom out and the picture looks a lot better.
Copper is still up 0.7% on the week, and aluminum is 2.3% higher, riding on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar and fears of trade wars.
That is not a market in trouble. That is a market holding steady while the world scrambles to figure out where things are heading.
North American copper miners have had a rough year. Production for 2024 came in 5% below original guidance, and next year’s forecasts are already another 5% below consensus estimates.
That is not an accident. Mining is getting more expensive, deposits are harder to extract, and the big players are being a lot more cautious with their projections.
Meanwhile, in China, iron ore is having its moment. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange jumped 1.51% to 838.5 yuan ($115.75) per ton, its highest level in four months.
Demand is ramping up. Steel transactions shot up 44% this week alone, and with China’s construction boom expected to kick into gear by March, the market is starting to feel the heat.
China’s central bank has made it clear they are backing private sector growth, which only fuels expectations of more stimulus. That is a recipe for continued demand in industrial metals.
Now let’s get to gold. This thing is relentless.
It dipped slightly to $2,948.70 per troy ounce, down 0.25%, but that is just a pause.
We just saw a fresh record of $2,973.40 per ounce, and let’s be real—$3,000 per ounce is looking less like a ceiling and more like a launchpad.
Safe-haven demand is driving this run. Inflation worries. Geopolitical tensions. Trade wars. The list of reasons to hold gold is getting longer, and investors know it.
And then there’s Trump, who never shies away from keeping markets on edge.
He stirred up fresh interest in gold this week when he assured the public he would “make sure the gold is there” in Fort Knox.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t help either. He floated the idea of monetizing the U.S. balance sheet, which got gold traders buzzing. Then he quickly shut down any speculation about revaluing gold reserves or using gold for a new sovereign wealth fund, but by then, the seed had already been planted.
Gold is being propped up by strong central bank purchases and aggressive Chinese consumer demand.
And just to put the cherry on top, Goldman Sachs bumped their gold price forecast to $3,100 by the end of 2025.
The market is listening. Base metals are proving resilient, but supply constraints and economic uncertainty are keeping traders on edge.
Copper’s fundamentals remain solid, but production challenges and cautious guidance are making it a waiting game.
Gold, meanwhile, is riding the wave of global uncertainty, and every new headline just seems to push it closer to $3,000 and beyond.
