When Donald Trump slapped India with a 50% import tariff, one of the harshest penalties yet, it was meant to show power. Instead, it may have handed China the perfect chance to cozy up with India.
What we saw in Tianjin was not just a friendly handshake between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping; it was a clear signal that India has options outside its old Western partners. And right there with them was Vladimir Putin, making the image even louder.
For years, India leaned closer to the US, especially as tensions with China spiked after bloody clashes on their Himalayan border in 2020.
Apps were banned, investments were cut off, and hostility was high. But Trump’s unpredictable tariff move has shifted the mood in New Delhi.
Why stay tied to an ally that suddenly punishes you, when you can sit at the table with Beijing and Moscow?
India Plays Its Cards Smarter
Let’s be honest, India knows it cannot risk an all-out conflict with China. Its military capability is not yet strong enough to guarantee a win, and in today’s Trump-led America, there’s no promise of backup. That is why this sudden warmth between Modi and Xi feels like a strategy, not sentiment.
China, for its part, is delighted. Xi called it “vital to be friends” and even spoke about the “dragon and the elephant” moving together.
India needs materials and rare earths from China to fuel its manufacturing boom. China wants India’s market back. Both sides have a lot to gain from pressing reset.
Still, this is not a fairy-tale friendship. Trust remains low. China continues to arm Pakistan, India’s biggest rival, and border tensions are far from resolved. But a calmer relationship helps India buy time and stability, while sending Trump a message: we are not trapped in your orbit.
What’s Actually Cooking
This is bigger than one handshake. Trump’s tariffs were supposed to pressure India into compliance. Instead, they exposed the risks of relying too heavily on Washington. Modi’s meeting with Xi and Putin is a reminder that India is willing to rebalance if pushed too hard.
It does not mean India has fully shifted sides. But it shows that America’s grip is loosening, and China is ready to exploit every crack.
For the US, the warning is clear. Tariffs and tantrums can drive allies into the arms of rivals. And for India, the move was classic diplomacy, play every side, keep every option open.
