The Agribusiness ETF, MOO, is on the verge of hitting its first 52-week high in over two years. And when that happens, it often signals higher prices ahead for both agricultural products and the producers themselves.

You’ve probably heard the saying, “the best cure for high prices is high prices, and the cure for low prices is low prices.” Well, that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing. Agricultural commodity prices have been at rock-bottom levels ever since the spike during the Russia-Ukraine conflict back in 2022. But now, it looks like that downturn might be coming to an end.

It’s been a while since you’ve seen this name in our portfolios, and that’s no coincidence. MOO has been in a downtrend, and sometimes it’s really just that simple. When something is moving down, we stay away.

Here’s the reality: nobody rides for free in the market. If you’re waiting for a great bargain to magically appear, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. Stick to your systems, trust your signals, and the money will follow.

Personally, I love a good 52-week high signal. And with MOO, we’re getting very close to that point again.

You can also spot this massive downtrend line that MOO is finally breaking out of. Now, I’m not usually the biggest fan of trend lines, but I do love a good 1-2-3 reversal pattern—especially when it lines up with a potential 52-week high.

That’s why AAO is adding the MOO ETF to our portfolios when it crosses above $76.24, with a 16% trailing stop in place.

Another one I’m keeping my eye on is DE (Deere & Co.). We’re seeing a massive coil forming here, with low volatility, cheap options, and excellent seasonality.

Over the last 50 years (Thats a lot of data) Deere has moved higher in November 70% of the time.

The chart looks amazing as well. A long term band squeeze ready to break out. At this point the smart trade is an options trade.

Buying the 430 strike calls for 10.80 or better on DE.

Finally one that we just recommend buying the common stock…

Scotts Miracle-Gro has the same pattern that we have been buying all cycle. A massive base break out. New 52 week highs. A hated sector coming back in to favor. Take a look at SMG.

Once we break out of this zone, there’s real potential for a 50% move. This is a long-term addition to the portfolio, one that we can really hold onto.

MOO is approaching a key breakout level, signaling the potential for a long-term move higher. After years of underperformance, agricultural commodities seem poised for a comeback, and we’re ready to capitalize on it. Whether it’s through the MOO ETF, which we’re adding to portfolios once it crosses $76.24, or individual plays like DE and SMG, we have several strong setups at our fingertips.

DE’s low volatility, seasonal strength, and cheap options make it a great candidate for an options trade, while Scotts Miracle-Gro is showing a classic base breakout with new 52-week highs, positioning itself for a strong move.

With all three of these setups, we’re looking at real opportunities for significant gains. Stay disciplined, trust the signals, and let the market do its work. The path forward is clear—stick to the strategy, and we can make the most of these promising setups.

Systems

As we can see, our systems are green. Honestly, there’s not much more to add each week besides that this is what a bull market looks like.

Despite this, market sentiment remains skeptical. We’re not seeing overly bullish traders, and there’s still a lot of fear surrounding the upcoming election.

Our fundamental model is still looking at stagflation being the major regime but disinflation is a close second.

Market Catalysts

Economic Calendar:

• Monday (10/14): No reports
• Tuesday (10/15): No reports
• Wednesday (10/16): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Export Prices, Import Prices, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (10/17): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Retail Sales
• Friday (10/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts

Earnings Calendar:

• Monday (10/14): No reports
• Tuesday (10/15): UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Omnicom Group (OMC), United Airlines (UAL), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
• Wednesday (10/16): ASML Holding (ASML), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Morgan Stanley (MS), Prologis (PLD), CSX Corp. (CSX), Crown Castle (CCI), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax (EFX)
• Thursday (10/17): Blackstone (BX), Elevance Health (ELV), Truist Financial (TFC), Travelers Companies (TRV), Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Crown Holdings (CCK), Bank OZK (OZK)
• Friday (10/18): Procter & Gamble (PG), Schlumberger (SLB), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Ally Financial (ALLY), Comerica (CMA), American Express (AXP)