ADC Therapeutics (NYSE: ADCT) has been a notable name in biotech, relying on its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) Zynlonta to compete in the tough B-cell lymphoma market. Now, in 2025, the company faces a critical moment, one that could either boost its stock significantly or lead to a steep decline.
The key issue here is the LOTIS-5 trial, a crucial phase 3 study that will show if Zynlonta can reach more patients and grab a bigger slice of the relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) market. With only about two years of cash left and no major revenue boost, ADCT is essentially putting everything on this one trial.
Make-or-Break Trial
Zynlonta is a cancer-fighting drug that already got special approval from the FDA for people with tough-to-treat B-cell lymphoma. But there’s a catch: it still needs more proof to show it works well in the long run and is safe. That’s what the LOTIS-5 trial is supposed to do.
The company finished signing up patients for the trial at the end of 2024, so we should see the first big results in 2025. If those results are good, ADCT can apply for full approval in early 2026, which would let Zynlonta be used as a second-choice treatment.
But if the trial doesn’t show strong results, things could go south fast. ADCT doesn’t have any other big drugs ready to go, and with newer treatments like CAR-T therapy and bispecific antibodies gaining popularity, the company could end up in serious financial trouble.
Low Cash, High Competition
ADCT has $274.3 million in cash, which should last about two years if it keeps spending at the same rate. But here’s the problem, it lost $44 million last quarter and is burning through about $135.9 million a year. That means time is running out.
To make things tougher, the competition in the B-cell lymphoma market is fierce. Zynlonta isn’t just trying to prove it works, it’s up against powerful new treatments like CAR-T therapies and bispecific antibodies. Even if the LOTIS-5 trial goes well, will doctors and patients pick Zynlonta over these newer, high-tech options? That’s the big question.
Risk vs Reward
Even though there are big risks, ADC Therapeutics is currently valued at about $150 million, which is actually less than the cash it has on hand. That makes it an interesting but very risky investment.
If the LOTIS-5 trial goes well, the company could turn things around and grab a bigger share of the $4 billion B-cell lymphoma market. But if the trial fails, ADCT might struggle to stay in business once its cash runs out.
For investors who can handle big risks, this could be a huge moment. The next important update? ADCT’s earnings report on March 27, where investors will be watching closely for news on the trial and any financial updates that might change the company’s future.
ADCT is in a tough spot. If you’re looking for a risky but potentially rewarding biotech stock, this could be one to watch. But be ready for a wild ride.
