Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is gearing up to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, July 31, and as always, the world will be watching. With a market cap of $3.1 trillion and a long track record of market-moving earnings, Apple stock tends to make headlines whether it beats, meets, or misses Wall Street expectations.
But the question for investors right now is this: Should you buy Apple stock before earnings? Or is it better to wait and see?
Q3 (April–June) tends to be a slower period for Apple, not because the company is underperforming, but because it’s the calm before the storm. Most of Apple’s major hardware releases, especially the next-gen iPhones, usually drop in the fall.
That makes this quarter a bit of a transitional phase where investors get a preview of the groundwork being laid for the rest of the year.
Still, Apple is expected to report earnings of $1.42 per share, with revenue of about $88.6 billion, a 3.3% year-over-year increase. That’s not huge growth, but in a tech environment riddled with uncertainty and tariff threats, it is solid.
The big story for Q3 isn’t the iPhone 17, it is Apple’s high-margin services business. While hardware may be stalling slightly due to consumers waiting for new releases, Apple’s services segment (which includes the App Store, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and iCloud) continues to power the revenue engine. This is especially important for long-term investors.
Services are more predictable, less cyclical, and come with much higher margins. The shift toward recurring revenue puts Apple in a stronger position to weather hardware headwinds or seasonal dips.
While iPhone sales are expected to slow as the market anticipates the iPhone 17 in September, Apple isn’t leaving customers empty-handed. The release of the budget-friendly iPhone 16e and updated M4-powered MacBooks could help soften the blow in the meantime.
If you’re betting on future growth, keep in mind that Apple has a knack for creating hype around its fall lineup. Buying before that wave can be a strategic move, especially if Q3 earnings paint a picture of stability.
One cloud hanging over Apple’s otherwise shiny narrative is trade policy, particularly tariffs on Chinese-made products. Apple previously warned it could face up to $900 million in extra costs due to tariffs imposed during the June quarter.
Even though U.S.–China tensions seem to be cooling, President Trump recently floated a 25% import tariff on iPhones unless they’re made in the U.S. That’s a major cost risk, and something investors should factor in as a near-term volatility trigger.
Let’s talk odds.
In the last five years, Apple stock has seen a positive post-earnings return just 40% of the time. Over the past three years, that number has climbed to 50%. When the stock does pop, it pops big, with a median gain of 5.3%. On the flip side, the median loss in negative scenarios is a relatively tame 1.6%.
If you’re a short-term trader looking to play earnings, those aren’t bad odds, especially if you believe Apple will beat expectations on the back of strong service revenues.
But if you’re a long-term investor, here’s the bottom line: Apple’s fundamentals remain extremely strong. With $400 billion in annual revenue, $127 billion in operating profit, and $97 billion in net income, this is still a company that prints cash and knows how to invest it wisely.
If you’re looking for a strong long-term growth potential, a diversified business with rising service revenues, and a company that navigates macroeconomic headwinds better than most…
Then yes, Apple is still a buy, even ahead of earnings.
Sure, near-term risks like tariffs and slower hardware sales exist. But the bigger story is Apple’s ability to shift, adapt, and thrive.
Whether you buy before July 31 or wait for the dust to settle, Apple remains one of the most compelling tech stocks on the market today.
