U.S. stock futures are looking calm this Wednesday morning, finally. After weeks of geopolitical jitters, a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding, giving investors some breathing room. Now, attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell, who’s due to speak again today, and possibly hint at the path for interest rates.

As of 7:06 a.m. ET, Dow futures dipped slightly by 0.09%, while the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq edged up 0.18%. Not a fireworks show, but after recent volatility, “flat” is the new comforting.

Markets rallied on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq 100 closing at a record high, and all three major indexes notching more than 1% gains. Investors are cautiously optimistic that Trump’s brokered ceasefire could stick, despite a few “isolated violations.”

Still, all eyes are now on Powell’s second day of testimony. Yesterday, the Fed Chair doubled down on the “wait-and-see” approach to interest rates, saying the central bank would only act if inflation cooled further or if the job market weakened. This means that there are no cuts just yet, but don’t rule out a move if things turn sour.

The FedWatch tool shows markets pricing in around 60 basis points in cuts by year-end, and a 70% chance of a 25-bps cut in September. A surprise dip in U.S. consumer confidence on Tuesday only adds fuel to that fire.

Meanwhile, the earnings front brought mixed vibes. FedEx stock sank 5.5% after slashing its Q1 profit forecast due to tariffs. UPS followed, down 1.1%. General Mills slipped 1.8% on weak profit guidance, while BlackBerry popped 9%, riding the wave of surging demand for cybersecurity.

Oh, and NATO? Trump’s back in the room. European leaders are pledging more defense spending, a move clearly designed to keep them from blowing up the alliance (again).

Bottom line: Middle East calm + Powell in pause mode equals cautious optimism. But with tariffs, earnings misses, and macro data still looming, investors shouldn’t get too comfortable just yet.